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Results set stage for super struggle
(by Mark J. Bonamo - February 13, 2008)
The results of the New Jersey Democratic presidential primary on Feb. 5 were not exactly what U.S. Rep. Steve Rothman (D-9th district) had hoped for. Garden State voters, participating in one of the 22 Democratic state primaries that comprised Super Tuesday, voted 55 percent to 44 percent for Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York over Rothman’s preferred candidate, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois. Clinton’s victory in the New Jersey primary provided her with 59 delegates to the August Democratic national convention in Denver, compared to 48 for Obama.
However, speaking with Hackensack Chronicle on the ballroom floor of Obama’s New Jersey election night party at the Wilshire Grand hotel in West Orange, Rothman had plenty of hope. For him and for political observers around the nation, the battle between Clinton and Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination has become the ultimate numbers game. And Rothman believes that despite a New Jersey shortfall for his candidate, it is a game that Obama will ultimately win.
“In December, Sen. Clinton was 34 points ahead of Sen. Obama in New Jersey,” said Rothman, whose district includes Hackensack and the surrounding area. “For Sen. Obama to have closed the gap so significantly, if not completely, in just six weeks is astounding. These results are a statement about what a very strong Democratic nominee for president he would be. That fact will be appreciated by primary and caucus voters in states that follow New Jersey and will encourage even more voters to ultimately join with him.”
Rothman’s prediction of final victory for Sen. Obama is predicated on two factors. The first is the belief that Obama will be able to win the 2,025 delegates necessary to secure the nomination. The second is based on the mo-mentum behind the Obama candidacy, an ongoing surge that resulted in convincing victories for Obama in the Washington, Louisiana and Nebraska Democratic primaries four days after Super Tuesday.
The mix of tangible and intangible factors surrounding the Obama candidacy has created a cocktail of political excitement and uncertainty whose effect may well last until the summer Democratic national convention. Hackensack Chronicle went inside the Obama camp in New Jersey on Super Tuesday to assess the outcome’s effect on Bergen County, New Jersey and the nation.
Poll numbers rise, pol examines results
Clinton decisively defeated Obama in Bergen County, outpolling her rival by roughly 66,000 to 43,000 votes, or 59 percent to 39 percent. The margin in Hackensack, however, was markedly closer, with a little more than 3,000 votes going to Clinton compared to nearly 2,900 for Obama for a narrow 49.7 percent to 47.5 percent victory. Over-all state Democratic voter turnout was exceptionally high. With 1.1 million votes cast, the total that surpassed the previous record set by voters in both parties during the New Jersey primary elections of 1981.
A surge of new Democratic primary voters, estimated at anywhere between 200,000 to 400,000, contributed to the record setting tallies. According to registration figures from the state Division of Elections, there were 108,301 registered Democratic party voters in Bergen County before the primary. The 110,765 votes subsequently cast in this primary represent a voter turnout of 102 percent.
“I heard from election officials that they were running out of the voter authority slips that people have to sign when they come in to vote,” remarked State Sen. Loretta Weinberg (D-37th district), whose district includes Hackensack. “I’ve got to believe that it was mostly new people.”
Many of these voters turned out on primary day because of the heat generated by the Clinton/Obama contest. Weinberg, an Obama supporter, commented on the heat that she has felt as a result.
“The entire Democratic establishment of the state supported Sen. Clinton,” she said, a nod to Clinton’s backing by Gov. Jon Corzine, U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez, most of New Jersey’s congressional delegation and 19 out of 21 county committees. “The fact that it’s such a race overall is a tribute to the grass-roots efforts for Sen. Obama. This is a campaign that came from the bottom up.”
Booker fires up Obama crowd
One of the leading New Jersey political supporters of Sen. Obama is Bergen County native and Newark Mayor Cory Booker. In a speech to a group of boisterous Obama supporters on primary night shortly after it was clear that Sen. Clinton had won New Jersey, Booker reminded the crowd how far Sen. Obama had come.
“Almost a year ago, I stood at Teterboro Airport with some other people and we endorsed Barack Obama,” Booker said.
“We literally were laughed at… This was Clinton country. This was Hillary’s backyard. But there were a bunch of New Jerseyans who knew and admired Hillary Clinton but had the audacity to believe in something bigger, some-thing stronger, and something more powerful.”
“We have shown the country that this state is not going to be given away,” Booker continued. “The efforts we have made will send delegates on to Denver loyal to a cause and loyal to Barack Obama.”
After his speech, Booker spoke with Hackensack Chronicle about the role being played by popular mood in the Democratic primary battle.
“There’s a rejection of smear and fear politics in the nation right now,” he said. “When the Clintons started going down that road, the people pushed back and quickly got them back in the lane. It’s time for politics that reaches out and pulls people in and doesn’t divide us. The months to come will be some of the most exciting in the nation’s history, and will overshadow even some of the politics of the 1960’s.”
Superdelegate vote grows critical
Much of the excitement surrounding the struggle between Clinton and Obama is derived from the fact that the Democratic presidential nomination may be decided on the convention floor in August. After Obama’s victory in the Feb. 10 Maine Democratic caucus, the all-important delegate count stood at 1,135 for Clinton to 1,106 for Obama. These tallies included what is known as ‘superdelegates’ on both sides.
The 796 superdelegates are members of Congress, governors and party officials who have automatic access to the convention, are bound to no candidate when they vote for the Democratic nominee and can change their mind if they see fit. More than 300 superdelegates have chosen their candidate with 213 having publicly committed to Clinton and 139 to Obama according to an Associated Press survey. If Clinton and Obama continue to closely split the vote, and therefore the number of delegates in the upcoming primaries, the superdelegates may play a decisive role in finally choosing the Democratic nominee.
Both the Clinton and Obama campaigns have been intensely lobbying the superdelegates. Joseph Marbach, chairman of the political science department at Seton Hall University, noted that despite Obama’s significant surge, his campaign might have a distinct disadvantage come convention time.
“I think that many of the superdelegates are committed to Hillary Clinton,” he said. “A lot of them are elected of-ficials from the states, and the Clintons have a long history of working with the state political organizations.”
Both sides ready to rumble
Although Hillary and former President Bill Clinton make a formidable political team, Rothman believes that the superdelegate factor does not necessarily damage Obama’s chances.
“The way Democratic primary voters vote is going to significantly affect how the superdelegates vote,” said Rothman, the sole New Jersey superdelegate to endorse Obama so far. “Even if the superdelegates were originally committed to one candidate or another, I don’t believe that in the end they would want to change the result if the majority of Democratic primary voters selected the other candidate.”
Speaking at the Obama party, State Senate President Richard Codey (D-27th district), who became an Obama supporter in January after former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina dropped out of the race, also thought the ongoing primary process would play the lead role in the determining the Democratic presidential nominee.
“As we go on to the next set of primaries, clearly Obama is surging, and Hillary is not,” Codey said to Hackensack Chronicle as TVs around the room flickered results from far-flung states on Super Tuesday night. “Clearly Old Man Mo(mentum) is with O, and O is Obama.”
Former Gov. Codey appeared to be correct in his momentum evaluation. Obama scored victories by large margins in the Democratic primaries in the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia on Feb. 12. Following the three “Potomac Primary” contests, Obama emerged with the overall delegate lead for the first time, with an Associated Press count tallying 1,223 for Obama versus 1,198 for Clinton, including superdelegates.
Later, a raucous pro-Obama crowd cheered as Codey uttered the kind of fighting words that will be used by both the Clinton and Obama campaigns in the months ahead as the bruising fight for delegates goes on.
“Everybody thought it would be all over a long time ago, that someone would have been anointed,” he said. “Well guess what? It’s like a boxing match, and it’s going to go a lot of rounds. And we’re going toe-to-toe all over this country, not just in New Jersey.”
E-mail: bonamo@northjersey.com
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