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Political analysis: Pennsylvania primary

(by Mark J. Bonamo - April 16, 2008)

NJ Dems watch Penn. primary battle

The ongoing struggle between U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York and U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois for the Democratic presidential nomination remains extremely close. According to CNNPolitics.com, Obama holds a slight edge in the all-important delegate count, with 1,632 delegates to 1,489 for Clinton. These totals include the delegates pledged to each candidate after the previous Democratic primaries held around the nation. They also include the number of superdelegates believed to support each candidate, a group of around 800 Democratic current or former party leaders and elected officials, the majority of which are seated automatically.

The superdelegates are free to support any candidate they so desire for the nomination. Therefore, with 2,025 delegate votes needed for the nomination, the value of, and competition for, their support has become increasingly important. CNNPolitics.com gives Clinton a slight 246 to 218 superdelegate edge over Obama.

There are still 10 primaries ahead for the Democratic candidates before the convention in August, when a winner will finally emerge. The upcoming Pennsylvania primary on April 22 has 158 delegates up for grabs, the highest number of any state left that still hasn’t held a primary.

As a result, all eyes are on the Keystone State this weekend to see who will win this skirmish in the Clinton/Obama nomination battle. Those closely watching New Jersey’s near neighbor include several of its most prominent Democratic politicians. While Gov. Jon Corzine and U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez have come out in support for Clinton, Bergen County-based U.S. Rep. Steve Rothman is backing Obama. Hackensack Chronicle spoke to each official about their candidate’s chances in the run-up to the latest round of a political boxing match that at times has rivaled those of Philadelphia’s own Rocky Balboa.

Menendez makes case for Clinton

The primary dust for New Jersey Democrats settled on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5. With a 54 to 44 percent victory, Clinton came away with 59 delegates to 48 delegates for Obama. New Jersey also has 20 superdelegates.

One reason for Clinton gathering the majority of Garden State voters was Menendez’s intense campaign efforts. The Cuban-American politician worked hard to get out the vote for the candidate trying to become America’s first female President, including appearances with Clinton in Hackensack and nearby North Bergen shortly before the vote.

In Menendez’s mind, Clinton is still the best-qualified candidate for the job, never mind Obama’s overall surge at the polls or his air of charisma.

"I’ve already gotten a call from (Pennsylvania) Gov. Ed Rendell asking me to go to Philadelphia and to parts of the Lehigh Valley where there are significant Hispanic communities," he said in a recent conversation in Fort Lee. "We’ll be engaged there."

Menendez noted the vital role of the superdelegates for both candidates’ chances to win the nomination.

"Neither one of these two candidates can win without superdelegates," he said. "After Sen. Clinton’s victories in states such as Ohio and Texas, I think that they are looking at the situation and saying that if you can’t win in the Southwest or swing states such as Ohio, how do you expect to win in November? The question is winning the swing states, including Pennsylvania, which are critical in getting the Electoral College vote."

When asked if the nomination struggle goes to the convention floor in Denver, will the aftermath of a bitter battle possibly lead to a November victory by Republican candidate John McCain, Menendez remained confident in his party’s chances.

"I don’t think we will go that distance," he said. "I’m not fearful of the continuing primary engagement. This party is strong enough at the end of the day and committed enough to change to win. The voters know that a change in the country does not come from electing John McCain, who is a replica of George W. Bush in so many ways."

Corzine looks to popular vote

Corzine is also a supporter of Clinton’s campaign. In a recent interview in Bogota, Corzine examined how the superdelegates might come to their final decision in the weeks ahead.

"The superdelegates, if they are wise, are waiting to see the outcome of the popular vote and how the momentum is going toward the end of the race," he said. "Just like everyone else, I look at the polls, and Sen. Clinton has a substantial lead in many of them. But those things change, and have the potential to change both ways."

Corzine noted New Jerseys’ close proximity to Pennsylvania as a potential factor in the outcome of the April 22 primary.

"We are neighboring states, and there will be an opportunity to participate," he said. "We’ll be involved like we were in Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin and Iowa. I’ve taken an active position, and I anticipate that I will be in Pennsylvania and some of the other states as well."

Rothman to Clinton: get out now

Rothman has taken his own active position for Obama, appearing with Clinton’s rival often during the African-American senator’s campaign swing through New Jersey.

During a recent conversation in Bogota, Rothman looked at the Pennsylvania primary within the framework of achieving ultimate Democratic victory in the fall.

"Sen. Clinton has a significant lead in Pennsylvania, and we expect that she will win there," a reference to polls indicating that Clinton has anywhere from a 7 to 20 percentage point lead. "Notwithstanding that, I’m confident that at the end of the primary season, Sen. Obama will have won more contests and more elected delegates, and thus will be the Democratic Party’s nominee for President."

Rothman went on to bluntly hint about what Clinton should do for the sake of the Democratic Party’s chances in November.

"Given that Obama’s leads in elected delegates, primary contest victories and popular vote appear to be nearly mathematically impossible to overcome, I believe that it is incumbent upon Sen. Clinton to withdraw from the race as soon as possible for the good of the Democratic Party," he said.

"This way, Democrats can unite, heal the wounds of the primaries and run the kind of campaign that will put Barack Obama in a strong position to win against a formidable John McCain candidacy. If the matter is forced until the last week in August at the convention, it would be particularly damaging to the prospects of a Democrat winning the general election in November."

Consequences of a contentious primary struggle

Political science professor Dr. Joseph Marbach, acting dean of Seton Hall University’s College of Arts and Sciences, examined what the Democratic deadlock may mean in November.

"Sen. Clinton may do well enough in Pennsylvania to keep her in the race," he said by phone from South Orange. "I think she needs to have a double-digit win in Pennsylvania to keep generating momentum. Ultimately, it’s a question of who is going to be electable in November."

Marbach pointed out that the protracted primary struggle could make the Democrats vulnerable in November.

"There are various scenarios in which you have to ask if Hillary Clinton is the nominee due to superdelegate votes, will African-American voters accept that," he said. "Likewise, if Barack Obama wins, would the groups that have supported Hillary, particularly Latinos, necessarily go with Obama. John McCain has a very good reputation in the Latino community, particularly because of his stand on immigration. There are cracks in both candidates that could be exploited by the McCain camp, and I’m not sure that the Democrats are going to set aside all the wounds that this campaign is opening."

Speaking recently at a public forum in Millburn, journalist Tim Russert, host of NBC’s Meet The Press, encapsulated what is in the minds of many Americans as they await the final outcome of the Democratic nomination fight. He did this first by referring to his family.

"My dad and three sisters all wonder why Hillary just doesn’t say what really happened," referring to the recent controversy about remarks she made about a 1996 trip to Bosnia, which led to a wider political debate about her overall veracity.

"Meanwhile, Sen. Obama’s challenge is going to be to convince the American people that he can be the president for all the people. He’s an unknown…It’s difficult to make an honest and intelligent judgment about someone. But we have to try."

E-mail: bonamo@northjersey.com


 

 

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